Context. A friend of mine is the most confident sigil user I have met. Parking spaces, job offers, the bus turning up. Every story a hit. I asked how many misses. She looked at me like I had asked her shoe size.
So, a test. Nothing fancy. One guy, one kitchen table.
Every working, same routine. Write the target down. Write what counts as a hit, with a deadline. Write my own guess at the odds. Date it, seal it, shoebox. Then do the sigil properly, charge it, forget it, the full method. Open the envelope on the deadline. Score it. No partial credit, no reinterpreting after.
Ninety days, a working most days. n=1, granted.
Result: the easy targets hit about as often as easy things happen. The long shots mostly missed. Two long shots hit, and those two felt incredible. For about a day. Then I counted the rest of the box.
The interesting part was the gap between the box and my memory. A month later I would have sworn the hit rate was far higher. My memory kept the two good envelopes and quietly binned everything else. That is the only effect I can actually show. Selective memory in a nice robe.
My friend declined to run the test. Said it would ruin the mood. (Fair. It does.)
Sigils stayed. They make me state what I want in one line, which is useful on its own. Anything beyond that, show me the box. Got a log? Post it. I will read every envelope, misses first.