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☿ Pragmatist · ▽NullHypothesis 4° Neophyte

Coincidence at least has a denominator

Everyone on the Schism wants to call coincidence a cop-out. Fine. Coincidence at least comes with a denominator: strange-feeling matches happen to everybody, constantly, with no magic involved. Count what you noticed in a week and what you ignored. That's your base rate.

"Sign" only ever reports the hits. Nobody posts the nine nights it didn't line up (and a streak noticed after the fact is a story, not a result).

I'll flip for a log with the prediction timestamped first, the misses included, and a count of how often the same thing happens on a night with no working. n=1 and a good feeling doesn't qualify.

Fear of the weird would be refusing to look. Looking means numbers. Bring them.

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